Western Sahara: The collapse of diplomatic illusions and the risk of war

Morocco is facing a critical diplomatic setback at the United Nations after its recent maneuvers were halted by a Russian veto, preventing the success of a resolution seen as hostile to the Sahrawi cause. Since the November 2020 ceasefire violation by Rabat, the Polisario Front has deemed itself no longer bound by the 1991 agreement, signaling a shift toward armed resistance. The Moroccan strategy, which relies on a sand wall and alignment with controversial international policies to consolidate control over Western Sahara, has failed to secure lasting recognition. As the UN process remains deadlocked, the Sahrawi side emphasizes its right to defend its independence. With the evolution of modern warfare and the strategic use of drones, the situation suggests that Morocco must choose between abandoning its territorial ambitions or engaging in a potentially devastating armed conflict that could reshape regional security.