Western Sahara: The dangers of Morocco's military ambitions

Morocco's recent efforts to seize control of UN-monitored areas east of the sand wall, particularly in Tifariti, signal a precarious turn for the Western Sahara conflict. By capitalizing on the reduced presence of MINURSO, Rabat risks triggering a prolonged asymmetrical war with the Polisario Front, which could launch guerrilla operations and target economic and military assets. Beyond the likelihood of local uprisings, any Moroccan military advancement near the Algerian border is viewed as a strategic threat that could escalate into a wider regional conflict. European nations, notably Spain as the de jure administering power, are facing criticism for their silence and inaction. By failing to restrain Morocco's territorial expansion, these states risk facing the direct consequences of regional instability, such as increased migration and disruptions to energy security, while ignoring the potential for a catastrophic escalation.