The Indicator Trap: Why Numbers Can Mislead Performance Evaluations
In an era where numerical indicators dominate the evaluation of institutions and public policies, researchers warn against placing blind trust in statistics. "Campbell's Law," formulated by psychologist Donald Campbell in 1976, demonstrates that when a quantitative indicator becomes a target for decision-making, it is inevitably manipulated, distorting the very reality it is meant to measure. This aligns with "Goodhart's Law" and the insights of anthropologist Marilyn Strathern, who argue that an indicator loses its true value once it is enforced as a primary goal. This danger is evident in education, where the pursuit of higher pass rates or university rankings can sacrifice the genuine quality of teaching and research. In his book "The Tyranny of Metrics," Jerry Muller highlights how such pressures push officials to prioritize polishing numbers over addressing core issues. The solution is not to abandon statistics, but to use a diverse range of indicators and remain critical, ensuring that we do not mistake the measurement for the reality on the ground.
