Journan — Accueil

Why a final settlement to the Western Sahara conflict remains unlikely in October 2026

Ahead of the UN Security Council's annual session in October 2026 regarding Western Sahara, Moroccan media outlets have promoted the idea of an imminent resolution favoring the autonomy plan. However, an objective assessment of international law and geopolitical realities suggests that the meeting will result in nothing more than a technical extension of the MINURSO mission. Differences within the Security Council and the UN’s commitment to self-determination render a final, unilateral settlement impossible. Significant legal and geopolitical hurdles remain, such as Spain’s ongoing management of the territory’s airspace, maritime boundary complexities, and security pressures related to migration. Furthermore, Morocco faces regional isolation and domestic social tensions stemming from recent normalization policies. Consequently, the conflict remains constrained by UN diplomatic management protocols, with the organization continuing to emphasize a political solution grounded in international legitimacy rather than one-sided declarations.