A state’s encirclement does not require forces stationed along its borders. It can also take shape through simultaneous pressures: instability on the borders, regional tensions, competition for influence, economic strain, information campaigns, diplomatic isolation, market disruptions, or rivalry over energy and trade routes. The danger lies in how these pressures interact. The analysis presented here argues that Algeria should focus not on finding a single way out, but on making such pressure less effective.
That approach would begin at home. Instead of dispersing resources in a succession of responses, the state could use challenges as an impetus to strengthen institutions and economic resilience. In complex crises, security is connected to the economy, energy, technology, education and information security. Treating these areas as an integrated system would make it harder to exploit gaps between institutions.
Economically, the proposal is not to abandon hydrocarbons, but to use them as a lever for moving towards an economy less reliant on a single source of external revenue. The article notes the World Bank’s recommendations to accelerate diversification, raise productivity and expand non-hydrocarbon exports. Those exports have multiplied since 2017, it says, but still account for a limited share of output and exports. The wider aim would be to diversify sources of strength through industry, food security, pharmaceuticals, the digital economy, artificial intelligence, logistics, the maritime economy, renewable energy and higher-value technology.
The analysis also proposes mapping strategic dependencies. Such a map would identify technologies, materials, food products, essential medicines, industrial components, software and supply chains where reliance on external sources could become a point of pressure. For each critical item, it calls for at least three alternatives: domestic production, multiple suppliers, and a technological or functional substitute.
In the digital sphere, data is described as a resource for understanding society, markets, the economy and their vulnerabilities. Digital sovereignty would mean more than protecting government servers: it would involve producing, storing, analysing and securing data, then turning it into knowledge for decision-making. The proposed national shield for strategic data would go hand in hand with developing artificial intelligence and forward-looking analysis, without cutting Algeria off from the digital world.
The article also calls for regular tests of national resilience through simulations. Scenarios could include a failure in the financial network, a rise in global food prices, a supply-chain disruption, an attack on major digital infrastructure, pressure on the energy sector, a broad disinformation campaign, or a diplomatic crisis occurring alongside an economic one. The aim would be to identify breaking points before a real crisis exposes them.
Algeria cannot change its geographic location, the analysis argues, but it can change the strategic value it derives from it. Borders could become spaces for shared interests through ports, roads, railways, trade, energy and communications links, investment, industrial zones, university exchanges and border security. Such connections could make the stability of Algeria a concern shared by its neighbours. The Sahel, too, need not be viewed solely as a source of threats: it could be a field for security partnerships, development projects, transport links, university cooperation, energy and trade initiatives, efforts against organised crime and diplomatic engagement.
Abroad, the article favours a broad network of ties with Europe, Africa, Asia, the Arab world, emerging powers, middle-sized states, multilateral institutions, companies and universities, rather than dependence on a single power. It also advocates linking the political, economic, commercial, security, academic and transport dimensions of relations with partners, grounding them in several shared interests.
The analysis further argues that Algeria should produce its own knowledge about its surroundings. Strategic think tanks, African studies centres, geopolitical monitoring, open-data analysis, scenario planning, academic networks, and scientific and cultural diplomacy could all contribute. Without its own expertise, a state may have to rely on the knowledge others produce about it.
On provocations, the article warns against automatic responses that could drain resources and allow outside actors to set the agenda. It proposes a graduated approach: verification and containment, followed by diplomatic pressure, legal action, the mobilisation of partners and appropriate economic measures. Deterrent tools would be considered only when necessary and in accordance with international law, the Constitution and national legislation.
The central conclusion is that stronger domestic resilience, diversified dependencies, deeper links with Africa and the Mediterranean, wider international networks, digital sovereignty and a productive economy could move Algeria from exposure to pressure towards greater influence. The aim is not confrontation, but to raise the cost of attempts to isolate the country by ensuring it has alternatives in markets, partnerships, resources, information and sources of power.