With Europe's oil refining capacity shrinking by 20% since 2009, the continent faces increased supply challenges, compounded by shipping disruptions and the shift away from Russian energy. Algeria is positioning itself to fill this void by investing $13 billion in refining and petrochemicals through 2030, as part of a broader $71.6 billion sector program. This move aims to pivot from current exports like fuel oil and naphtha toward high-demand products such as diesel and aviation fuel. Egypt is similarly investing $4.5 billion to upgrade its own facilities. While analysts note that the strategic location of North African nations offers a competitive edge, they caution that rising domestic consumption could potentially constrain the volume of energy products available for the European market.